As international journalists observing the U.S. elections this fall, many of us are closely following how U.S. foreign policy might shift after the election, particularly considering the current global tensions.
For example, Donald Trump’s stance on the war in Ukraine and his commitment to NATO have raised concerns among European diplomats. Trump has repeatedly claimed he could “quickly end” the Russia-Ukraine war but has not provided a detailed plan.
Thomas Hanson, a former U.S. Foreign Service Officer who served in countries such as France, Norway, the Soviet Union, and Sweden, currently serves as Diplomat in Residence at the University of Minnesota’s Alworth Institute for International Affairs. He shared his thoughts on how both presidential candidates might influence U.S. foreign policy.
Regarding Trump, Hanson describes him as a transactional and unpredictable figure, focused on “ending wars” and domestic issues.
“He says he will end these wars,” Hanson said. “So, how will he do that?”
Hanson said Trump would likely follow Sen. J.D. Vance’s peace plan, which calls for Ukraine to make concessions.
“JD Vance even talks about neutrality for Ukraine and giving up territory,” Hanson said. “I can’t imagine Ukraine accepting that or wanting to go that route.”
Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to continue supporting Ukraine, but Hanson finds her position somewhat unclear. He said Harris has not been very open about her foreign policy views.
“I think she will likely be as careful as Biden has been regarding sending ground troops or long-range weapons to Ukraine,” Hanson said, adding that Ukraine needs more support to secure a peace that preserves its territorial integrity.
In addition to Ukraine, tensions are also high in the Middle East.
On Sept. 28, 2024, it was confirmed that Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. At the same time, Israel’s ongoing attacks in Gaza, which began nearly a year ago, have resulted in over 40,000 deaths since October 2023, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry. Also, nearly 100 hostages kidnapped by Hamas remain in Gaza.
When considering the presidential candidates, Hanson said Trump would likely be strongly supportive of Israel. However, Trump also has said that he wants to end violence now.
“Once again, Trump is very unpredictable,” Hanson added. “He may take an unusual approach to this problem.“
With Harris, again, her approach is still a bit more unclear.
“Something tells me that, while supportive of Israel, she may not be as aligned with Biden due to her career and background,” he said.
The United Nations has repeatedly stated that civilians in Gaza must not be collectively punished for the atrocities committed by Hamas. The humanitarian situation on the ground has been very devastating and many people lack access to food, clean water and health care.
“America is losing credibility in much of the world right now by the amount of support we are offering Israel in this situation,” Hanson said. “Many countries believe there should be a path toward peace. Many people in Israel also feel that to get the hostages out.”
Hanson said Israel is pursuing its own course of action.
“We don’t control Israel, but we do support Israel,” he said. “The question is, at what point should we use our support and leverage to influence the situation?”
