Europe and the United States have historically been very close allies. This relationship is even more urgent now considering a war is raging in Ukraine.
That’s why European countries are closely watching the U.S. elections and wondering how the results might affect this historic partnership. In this blog, my three European fellows and I share perspectives on how our countries view the elections.
Finland
Since my home country Finland became a member of NATO last year due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the focus of the elections has been on European security.
While the official policy line is that Finland will work with any administration, some politicians have not been shy to share opinion of the more favorable candidate. The Finnish public broadcaster Yle surveyed Finnish members of the European Parliament, and most agreed that Kamala Harris would be a better choice for European interests, calling Trump “unpredictable and dangerous” for Europe.
However, some Finnish officials downplay the potential impact of the U.S. election. Mikko Hautala, Finland’s former ambassador to the United States, says in an interview that the election is unlikely to bring drastic changes to U.S. foreign policy.
“Regardless of who is elected, the basic questions remain the same,” he says. “We must act in a way that it does not matter who wins.”
Many Finnish politicians have also emphasized that, despite who wins the election, U.S. attention is likely to soon shift from Europe to China. That’s why Europe must boost its strategic autonomy and defense instead of relying the United States.
Bulgaria
In Bulgaria, the U.S. election could significantly impact domestic politics. Bulgarian WPI Fellow Ralitsa Ficheva says the outcome might force political parties to reconsider their alliances, as Bulgaria heads toward its seventh consecutive parliamentary election in just three years.
Previous election winner, the center right Citizens for European Development GERB-party has traditionally aligned with pro-European partners.
“However, if Donald Trump wins, GERB may be compelled to seek alliances with nationalist and pro-Russian parties,” she says.
Given the U.S. role in global security, foreign policy is the most important issue for Bulgaria. The country lacks its own defense force and relies heavily on NATO allies.
Italy
Italy and the United States have a strong economic relationship. The United States is the most important economic partner for Italy after Germany, says Italian WPI Fellow Cesare Treccarichi.
“The worst scenario for our economy would be Trump, due to his will to put tariffs on European goods,” he says.
Political parties follow their political positioning: far right parties stand for Trump, progressives follow Harris’ policies.
Ukraine
Because the United States is the main military donor for Ukraine, it is not a surprise that Ukrainians are very interested in the U.S. elections.
“Ukraine is already a hostage of the U.S. election campaign,” says Ukrainian WPI Fellow Kristina Zeleniuk. “That’s why Ukrainian officials and diplomats should be very careful in their statements and actions. Trump’s team will use anything they can against the Biden-Harris Administration.”
One example of this was the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi to the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania. House Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans have used it against the Biden-Harris Administration, accusing Ukraine of interfering in the U.S. election.
“At the same time, journalists and experts have noted that Trump may also tend to get along with dictators,” she says. “But it’s necessary to distinguish pre-election rhetoric from real actions in the White House with full information from intelligence on the table.”
Regarding Harris, Zeleniuk assumes her approach towards Ukraine won’t be very different from Biden’s.
“It means that the U.S. will artificially restrain Ukraine by not giving us enough weapons,” she says. “And now it’s not about victory and liberation of all the Ukrainian territories up to the internationally recognized borders of 1991. We are talking about that critical level of military support for which Ukraine won’t lose this war.”
Ukrainians still hope for a change in the United States’ strategic approach to Ukraine. This includes NATO membership and supporting Ukraine’s military potential by giving Ukrainians enough weapons.
“And most importantly, the West must finally stop viewing Ukraine as a ‘buffer territory’ between NATO and Russia, hoping that Ukraine will be a lifeboat from a possible future war,” Zeleniuk says.
